How Iran war exposes Europe’s dangerous dependency on fertilisers

Four years ago, Russia’s invasion of Ukraine sent fertiliser prices soaring, exposing the true extent of just how reliant our food systems are on fossil fuels and the vulnerability of geopolitical chaos. 

This actually made Russian fertiliser producers beneficiaries of the war and internationally, the big winners of the 2022 fertiliser crisis were, unsurprisingly, the largest fertiliser companies. Their profit margins boomed by 36 percent, on average, compared to the previous year, whilst consumers were left grappling with sky-high grocery prices.

When are we going to learn this lesson? Today, with conflict escalating in the Middle East, we are watching the same crisis unfold in real time.

Op-ed by Lena Luig.

Roughly a third of the world’s fertiliser exports pass through the Strait of Hormuz, a narrow chokepoint now blocked by Iran in response to being attacked.

This is not the first time Iran has rendered this critical trade route out of action, sending oil giants into a frenzy. Within days of the latest escalation, fertiliser prices surged, with urea (a nitrogen-based fertiliser) jumping sharply across global markets. A harsh reminder that we’ve built a broken and fragile system on which fossil fuels equal food, so when gas and oil prices spike, so does the cost of produce.

Interestingly, as this plays out, Europe is simultaneously weakening its efforts towards building resilience.

There’s been a push to suspend one of the few policies designed to fix that dependency.

Just two weeks into the implementation of the EU Carbon Border Adjustment Mechanism (CBAM), 12 European countries have requested that the European Commission trigger Article 27a (the emergency brake) of the CBAM regulation to exempt fertilisers from the mechanism. 

This is a move that will harm European producers and consumers the most. And it’s being driven by an association that claims to have farmers’ best interests at heart.

Copa-Cogeca lobbying and stockpiling

The political pressure around that request has been amplified by Copa-Cogeca, which stressed that nitrogen fertiliser imports collapsed by 80 percent in January 2026 compared to the previous year.

A statistic that is deeply misleading and does not account for the fact that many farmers stockpiled fertiliser in anticipation of the new policy.

In December 2025 imports surged to nearly four million tonnes, double the previous year, as traders rushed shipments before CBAM’s definitive phase. 

Independent analysis now shows CBAM’s impact on fertiliser prices is negligible, adding just €1.40 to €1.79 per tonne of urea.

Meanwhile, the European Commission has been clear that weakening CBAM would undermine investment in low-carbon fertilisers and prolong dependence on fossil fuel-based production. In reality, CBAM would level the playing field, protect European industry, and create a business case for cleaner, more resilient fertiliser production.

Even fertiliser producers themselves warn that suspending it would be a strategic error.

So let’s be clear, it’s not CBAM driving price spikes today, it’s energy price volatility, unstable trade routes and geopolitical conflict. Scrapping it would lock both farmers and consumers into an increasingly volatile and expensive future.

There is a grave misconception that environmental and climate policy threatens Europe’s farming and food industry.

However, the real threat here is our over-reliance on synthetic fertilisers tied to fossil fuels and fragile supply chains. Around half of global food production depends on these inputs, but time and time again, conflict has shown there is little reserve, little buffer in times of crisis. 

Overuse of synthetic fertilisers has degraded soil health, forcing farmers to apply ever greater quantities to maintain yields. This creates a vicious cycle, lining the wallets of major fertiliser companies, the only real benefactors.

Nitrogen runoff is now a major driver of water pollution across Europe, while emissions from fertiliser production and use are highly damaging to the climate and contribute to making it one of the most carbon intensive industrial sectors.

A significant share of fertiliser never even reaches crops, lost to the air, soil and waterways, deeming it a highly inefficient, damaging and expensive system. All the while, higher energy and fertiliser prices feed directly into higher production costs, and ultimately higher food prices for consumers.

2022 redux

The result is a system where farmers are forced to either absorb rising costs, cut fertiliser use and risk yields, or pass costs on to consumers.

We saw this in 2022. We are seeing it again now. And we will keep seeing it until we address the root cause.

This is systemic failure.  The definition of insanity is doing the same thing over and over and expecting different results. Let’s look at another way. 

Across Europe, farmers using regenerative and agroecological approaches are already proving this is possible.

Research from the European Alliance for Regenerative Agriculture, covering 78 farms across 14 countries, shows that synthetic fertiliser use can be reduced by 61 per cent and pesticides by 76 percent, with just a two percent reduction in yields, and in many cases improved farm margins.

This is not about asking farmers to do more with less. It is about redesigning a system that is currently designed to fuel the profits of a few but fail the majority of us, farmers included. 

Climate, environment, food systems and farming are intrinsically linked, and central to national security. The human cost of conflict is devastating, with lives lost and communities displaced.

But its ripple effects on how we feed ourselves are not inevitable. Europe can choose to build a food system that is more resilient to conflict, geopolitical shocks and trade wars, rather than one that remains exposed to them.