Op-ed by Simone Højte, Emmanuel Molding Nielsen, Adrianna Wrona and Johannes Flatz
The European Commission has published “A Vision for Agriculture and Food”, where it scales back green ambitions compared to the Farm-to-Fork strategy, thereby passing the buck to Member States to implement sufficient measures to meet EU climate goals. However, the future of EU agriculture will also be shaped by negotiations on several crucial files—including a new budget (Multiannual Financial Framework), a 2040 climate target, and the reform of the Common Agricultural Policy. The Polish and Danish EU presidencies, in the first and second half of 2025 respectively, will bear the responsibility of leading debates that will set the pace and scope of agricultural policies for years to come, argue Simone Højte, Emmanuel Molding Nielsen, Adrianna Wrona and Johannes Flatz in this op-ed.
Bridging different visions
Poland and Denmark share a common interest in strengthening the security, competitiveness, and climate resilience of European agriculture. Yet, despite this alignment, they approach the sector from different perspectives.
Polish ideas align more closely with those proposed in the EU Vision. In Poland, security is the priority. Indeed, supply chain disruptions of recent years have fuelled both farmers’ protests and inflation, eroding Poles’ purchasing power.
Poland’s attention is directed at short-term production stability with the focus on quantity and price competitiveness. Actions to foster resilience are understood through the lens of securing reserves for crisis management and supporting new genomic techniques. Simplification of the European Green Deal also ranks high on the agenda, echoing Polish farmers’ demands.
Incentives are favoured over regulations when it comes to protection of the environment. Climate adaptation rhetoric overshadows that of mitigation. At the same time, safeguarding small farmers’ livelihoods—an influential political constituency in Poland—remains critical.
Denmark’s position differs from Poland’s. Denmark favours the idea that EU funds should be more conditioned on performance to ensure effectiveness. For Denmark, the priority for the next CAP is a greener, simpler and more market-based policy, where the focus is on supporting farmer’s income while striving to deliver on climate, environmental, and biodiversity objectives. The focus on innovation in the Commission’s Vision for the sector also aligns with Danish interests.
In November 2024, the Danish government’s historic agreement to introduce a ‘CO2e tax’ on agriculture demonstrated its commitment to climate mitigation. Ambitious climate policies and targets will likely remain at the forefront of Denmark’s priorities, emphasizing agriculture’s role in achieving EU climate neutrality.
Poland’s and Denmark’s diverging priorities are unsurprising given their different agricultural structures and are likely to persist. For example, the Danish government already advocates for EU-wide regulation of GHG emissions from the agricultural sector. At this stage, Polish support for such measures seems unlikely. Conversely, Poland approaches the sector’s challenges from a social cohesion perspective—an approach that Denmark does not prioritize.
2025 will be an important year for European agriculture
At first glance, Poland and Denmark’s sectoral ambitions could not be more different. A key task of their presidencies will therefore be navigating these differences. Nevertheless, 2025 will be crucial for European agriculture, and finding common ground must be a priority.
The EU needs to agree on a 2040 climate target, with the European Scientific Advisory Board on Climate Change recommending approximately 90% reduction. To deliver on this commitment, the European Commission will likely propose a new climate policy package for 2040. Simultaneously, both presidencies are expected to work on a new budget and the next agricultural policy.
This presents both presidencies with an opportunity to shape the sector’s direction for the next five years. In fact, precisely because of their divergent approaches, points of convergence between Poland and Denmark could serve as a valuable litmus test for compromises acceptable to a range of Member States.
Sustainable competitiveness should be a priority for Poland and Denmark
Ursula von der Leyen’s Political Guidelines and the European Council’s Strategic Agenda for 2024-2029 underscore the importance of building the EU’s sustainable competitiveness and represents a potential point of convergence between the Polish and Danish Presidencies.
The EU Vision for Agriculture and Food also acknowledges the need for greater uptake of environmentally friendly practices and solutions, albeit with a focus on ensuring the resilience of the sector and prosperity for farmers.
Well-designed investments in sustainability-enabling technologies and practices are essential to strengthening both environmental and economic stability. This requires the CAP and a new climate architecture to ensure such technologies and practices are available to farmers. The Polish and Danish presidencies should find common ground on sustainable competitiveness and leverage the securitization of the agriculture sector to enable a sustainable, resilient, and profitable future for EU agriculture.
Simone Højte is Senior consultant at CONCITO.
Emmanuel Molding Nielsen is Analyst at Think Tank Europa.
Adrianna Wrona is Agriculture and Food Systems Analyst at Green Economy Institute.
Johannes Flatz is Climate analyst at CONCITO.
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