
New Genomic Techniques do not hold water. Their false promise is inconsistent with territorial and sustainable water management, finds this policy analysis by Marie-Lise Breure-Montagne for the Rural Resilience project. First in a three-part series on the topic of water, diversification and agroecology.
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Background
On 24 January 2024, plans to loosen EU rules on New Genomic Techniques (NGTs) passed the first hurdle in the European Parliament.
Just a few days previously, more than 35 Nobel Prize winners and 1,000 scientists had signed an appeal to MEPs to “reject the darkness of anti-science fearmongering”, to “consider the unequivocal body of scientific evidence supporting NGTs, and make decisions that align with the European Union’s and its citizens’ best interests”.
Conspicuous by their absence from the scientific appeal were the world’s five largest seed companies, which include Germany’s Bayer and BASF, as well as France’s Limagrain.
It seems the standard approach is now to shoot the eco-messenger, and ignore the message.
We won’t debate the fact that the “solid scientific evidence in support of NGT” is based on as yet incomplete knowledge of the genomes of cultivated plants (Figure 1). But we will take into account the “body of solid scientific evidence”, including the contributions of scientists in rubber boots, such as crop trial researchers (part 1 of this analysis), and hydrologists (part 2 of this analysis). Unlike other research scientists, hydrologists cannot ignore the rigours of climate change all over Europe, especially water scarcity. Since crops have a water content varying from 80 to 95% of their total weight, this production factor is fundamental to variety improvements.
Genetic techniques, however ‘new’, are no match for climate change.

NGTs – Not Good Tactics
New genomic techniques cater to the big earners of conventional agriculture.
In France crop yields have plateaued despite genetic progress. This trend has been clear since at least 2011 according to Philippe Gate of Arvalis crop research institute, who cites drought and heat as the primary risk factors for yields (see figure 2). Globally, the crops most vulnerable to climate change are wheat and maize.
Maize is the most widely grown cereal crop on the planet – as well as one of the thirstiest, irrespective of soil or climate. Wheat is the most widely grown cereal crop in Europe. Together, wheat and maize represent three-quarters of European cereal production, and France and Germany are the two biggest producers in the EU.

Sowing in autumn instead of spring is one strategy to avert the risks associated with climate change.
Another approach is genetic improvements to increase tolerance to water stress and heat stress. But it’s complicated: drought-resistant varieties are completely different to heat-resistant varieties.
Heat stress is the biggest threat to wheat crops in France and many other countries, crop scientist Philippe Gate warned in 2015, yet French and international programmes have been slow to prioritise this dimension.
For agronomists, there is much basic research to be done on crop genetics before solutions can be glimpsed, and outcomes are uncertain.
Enter the irrigation lobby, stronger than ever during the farmers’ protests: while a heating planet is out of control, irrigation can still save us from the effects of water stress on crops and, above all, ensure business as usual.
In 2024 an article in Nature confirmed another of Gate’s decade-old warnings: a global trend towards rapid groundwater decline in aquifers, the last bastion against aridification.
Cropping choices are and will be restricted (as will farm incomes) if we continue to think of agricultural production in terms of wheat and maize that is often destined for industrial and intensive livestock farming.

NGTs – Neoliberalism’s Great Technopush
The main promise of NGTs is to make things go faster. But faster adaptation of varieties to climate change will not necessarily solve the web of problems described above, or make up for lost time.
Instead, plant genomics experts urge us to look beyond the gene scissors, and to look beyond the farm scale, to incorporate a territorial dimension. When selecting varieties, if we are to meet key objectives around water management, resistance, functional biodiversity and greater resilience in the face of climate change, a broader lens is needed.
Technological innovations are not a panacea. Organisational adaptation is needed, at the appropriate territorial scale. To safeguard against critically depleted aquifers, for example, the priority is to choose the right mix of species, avoiding water-intensive crops.
Such adaptations are addressed in the Afterres 2050 scenario. Developed by Solagro in 2011 and updated since, the scenario is guided by the EU’s Green Deal, Farm to Fork strategy, Water Framework Directive and biodiversity strategy, and grounded in tried and tested technologies. (Figure 3).

The Afterres 2050 scenario shows that it is possible, with a more radical change of model, to reduce the volume of water abstraction for summer irrigation by up to 50%.
Importantly, in this time of farmer protests, Afterres 2050 shows that an ambitious trajectory for agriculture is achievable without throwing out the Green Deal or Farm to Fork.
Through less – and less intensive – livestock farming (via permanent grassland and other grazing systems), and an increase in organic acreage (with longer crop rotations and nitrogen-fixing legumes), we can rein in dependence on imported pesticides, mineral nitrogen and oilcakes.
Only then will we be able to talk of true food sovereignty: a concept enshrined in French law, notwithstanding the premier’s hasty promise to legislate for food sovereignty in response to the farmer protests in February 2024.
This article has been translated and condensed.
Coming up in part 2 of this series: a comparison of territorial water management in France and Germany.
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Water as a Common Good .. and climate risks, a common destiny – Part 2/2
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