So here we are, a few weeks into the fresh year and sitting at the start of a new 5-year political cycle. With both a newly elected European Parliament and a new European Commission, 2025 will be a definitive year in shaping the direction of agricultural policy. So what can we expect from 2025? And what does this mean for the shape of the agrifood sector in this next political chapter? Natasha Foote breaks down all the fun to come over the new year and beyond.
Policy dates for the diary
Let’s start with 2025 itself, which will be a defining year for agrifood policy. In the diagram above, we’ve outlined the core moments to watch out for, based on what we know so far. Below, we dig in deeper to what these really mean.
The big three
2025 Vision: Stand out moments for agrifood stakeholders include the presentation of the EU’s Vision for Agriculture and Food, expected 19 February (or thereabouts, subject to the Commission’s shifting calendar).
The EU’s upcoming Vision for Agriculture and Food can be seen as a blueprint that lays the groundwork for the direction of European agricultural and food policy over the next five years and beyond. As Christophe Hansen, recently appointed as the agriculture commissioner, put it, the Vision as a “shared roadmap for future initiatives”.
The new roadmap will be built on the recommendations of the Strategic Dialogue on the Future of Agriculture, a consensus building exercise between selected agrifood stakeholders to draw up a common vision for the future of the sector (more on that here).
The concretisation of the strategic dialogue will also come this year, with this dialogue group transforming into the new European Board of Agriculture and Food (fun new acronym alert; welcome, EBAF!). This new board will help guide the work both of the Vision, but also of agrifood policy over the course of this mandate.
But, with President von der Leyen kicking off her second mandate with the first steps towards a Mercosur trade deal (see below for more info), these bridges are being built on shaky foundations of trust. The upcoming Vision will therefore be the acid test of this roadmapping process which is already being implemented out across other sectors.
CAP post-2027: Another big policy moment is the first sprout of the next reform of the Common Agricultural Policy for post-2027. The Commission is expected to put a proposal on the table around summer, laying the groundwork for the next EU farming subsidy programme. This is a drawn-out process which requires a long negotiation, so this is just the beginning of the wrangling to come.
Money matters: Summer will also bring another defining proposal on the Multiannual Financial Framework, EU-talk for the bloc’s budget for the next 7 years. Big money always means big politics – but this time it might be bigger than usual, between increasing pressures on the budget and talks of a merging of money pots, which could carry far-reaching consequences for agriculture and rural areas. What is decided in these negotiations will also set the fate of the CAP budget for the next reform.
Other big themes
Trade tensions: Although there is no end date in sight just yet, this year will also be defined by tensions over trade talks after President Von der Leyen kicked off her second round in the top job of the Commission with a handshake on the Mercosur trade deal. Staunchly opposed by the EU farming community,with France leading the charge, the next steps to sealing a deal are not expected to be smooth. We can expect to hear the phrase ‘mirror measures’ a lot this year.
Meanwhile, the rumours of a fund to help sweeten the deal for farmers have also been thrown into question this week, with the Commission instead referring to a potential “reserve” set aside for farmers – which could tangibly mean something very different for farmers.
But that’s not all on trade – with President Trump taking his second term amid looming threats of tariffs and tensions mounting with China, trade is likely to dominate both headlines and the political agenda this year.
New GM(nO)s: The Commission’s plans to loosen the rules on the use of new genomic techniques (NGTs, also known as gene editing or new GMOs) may take some steps forward this year, with Poland, followed by Denmark, taking the reins of the rotating EU presidency. Both are keen to get things moving on this file – so keen, in fact, that Poland has already drafted a new policy proposal in efforts to overcome the impasse blocking the file’s progress over in the Council. Time will tell whether this will come to fruition – but sources say that, so far, the proposal hasn’t done much to move opposing countries towards a compromise.
New future flavour
From ‘green’ to ‘clean’: It’s important to note that these policy conversations will take place in a very different context than the last 5-year political cycle. First off, forget the ‘Farm to Fork’ logic – this new Commission is shifting from ‘green’ to ‘clean’, with a new policy doctrine orientated on competition and industry.
‘Keep it simple, stupid’: Simplification is the other name of the game this time around for the Commission. The first attempt at this – the reopening of the legal acts of the EU’s farming subsidy programme in response to last year’s farmers’ protests, which saw mandatory environmental requirements downgraded to voluntary, among other impacts – gives a first glimpse of the direction to come.
While a key demand from farmers, there is also a real risk that de-bureaucratisation may become a synonym for deregulation. This will require engagement with the complexities of the CAP, offering solutions that work both for farmers and the environment, as well as continued scrutiny of the Commission’s conduct in slashing both existing and future policies.
New right-leaning realities: Any policy proposal will have to navigate the new realities of a right-leaning flavour of both the Parliament and Council. In the Parliament, from its newly concreted position of power, the centre-right EPP is best placed to set EU policy. Their track record of rescinding, diluting and pausing environmental rules does not bode well for the environmental ambition of the next iteration of the CAP. The right-ward trend may well continue with further national elections in 2025, including one of countries with the most weight at the EU level, Germany.
Farmer frustrations: Despite a brief reprieve, the frustrations and polarisation seen last year on the back of the farmers’ protests continues to run deep in Brussels and beyond, with growing gaps between urban and rural communities. Farmers have already once again taken to the streets of Strasbourg, the second home of the European Parliament, while tensions continue to grow in both France and Poland over trade, setting the tone for the year ahead.
More
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