Welcome to the Year of the CAP — but just how “common” will the EU’s next agricultural policy be? Could pensioners be excluded from direct payments? And will farmers finally get a day off?
Meanwhile EU leaders are freewheeling in the direction of free-trade deals. We may remember 2026 as the year the floodgates were opened to new genetic technologies. Plus the future of seeds is at stake, with upcoming trilogues that will make or break the proposed overhaul of the EU’s Seed Law.
But first, there’s a battle looming over the budget. Natasha Foote reports on a decisive year ahead for EU policy.
Is it still okay to write happy new year in mid February? In the Commission’s spirit of adapting rules when it suits, I will say, yes, happy new year to you.
Anyone hoping for a quiet start to the year was sadly mistaken. Between hostile attempts to seize parts of the EU, imminent threats of war, and trade deals pushed through left, right and centre, things are not about to get quieter on the agrifood policy front.
Big budget battle
Buckle up for a bumpy policy battle over the next EU budget (the so-called ‘multiannual financial framework), which is set to be bigger than ever — the battle, that is, not the budget.
Because with the EU tightening its belt and redirecting money towards the bloc’s long-term budget, it’s all to play for other priorities to get a slice of the EU money pie.
Discussions have been ongoing since the announcement of the Commission’s Big Budget Bombshell that would radically restructure its funding programmes, pooling EU funds together into one money pot. This would merge agricultural funding with other funding streams, such as cohesion and migration. Funding would then be allocated on the basis of national plans, giving member states considerable discretion over how and where to direct money.
February saw the first real debate among political groups in the Parliament’s budget committee on the 2028–2034 budget — and so far, nobody seems happy with the proposal on the table.
Expect things to heat up in the budget battle towards the summer, as both lawmakers (in the Parliament and the Council) get underway on their way to their own compromise position before attempting to find a final deal.
Year of the CAP
The end of one big fight will just mark the start of another, as once the overall money talks are sealed, we’ll know more about the shape and size of the EU’s farming subsidy programme, the Common Agricultural Policy (CAP).
While agrifood stakeholders have already been plenty vocal on the overhaul of the policy currently on the table, battlelines will really be drawn from summer onwards.
Discussions are likely to revolve around a similar sticking point — how much power member states should have in steering a supposedly ‘common’ agricultural policy and what this means for any EU level ambition.
We can also expect clashes over budget size, including which bits are ringfenced (and key questions over whether any of it is ringfenced for the environment), as well as who should be prioritised for funding.
For instance, there’s drama looming on the proposal to stop direct payments for pensioners, as well as how far the policy should dip its toes into social issues, including proposals for services to offer farmers a breather from the farm for holidays and sick leave.
As a core EU competence, it’s always worth keeping pace with what is happening in Brussels. But this time it’s really crucial, as with the move towards renationalisation, it’s the moment the EU has the biggest say in divvying out this slice of the EU budget pie. That’s because once the proposal is cleared at the EU level and member states’ plans are approved, there will be very little steering from Brussels.
This means it’s more important than ever to get all voices around the table – including more marginalised rural voices – to lay strong foundations for the future of the policy.
Seedy business
April may well bring the final sealing of the deal on EU plans to loosen the rules on the use of new GMOs — the so-called new genetic technologies — but it’s not a done deal just yet.
The proposal still needs approval from the Parliament and a final green tick from the Council — but lawmakers in the Parliament are not happy with the deal that was agreed back in December, which crosses a number of their red lines.
This includes the use of patents as well as questions around sustainability definitions and breeders exemptions.
While it’s too early to say how it will play out, groups in the Parliament are mobilising to table amendments which — with a bit of luck and potentially support from both ends of the political spectrum — may be enough to put a spanner in the works.
Meanwhile, talks have just entered their final phase on the proposal to overhaul the EU’s seed law, the so-called Plant Reproductive Materials (PRM — see Seeds4All’s latest legal update), which stands to fundamentally change the way seeds are traded and exchanged in the EU.
Trade tensions
All of this is happening against the backdrop of wider geopolitical tensions, which are pushing EU leaders towards free-trade deals at breakneck speed.
We already saw the sealing of the Mercosur trade deal back in January, and while that is busy being contested in EU courts, the EU has eyes on other prizes. Mercosur was swiftly followed by a deal with India, with EU lawmakers now looking at Mexico and Thailand in bids to diversify global allies. There’s also talks of a fresh look at the EU-Australia trade deal, which (like many before it) broke over an agrifood row.
At the same time, the EU is busy with its new “Buy European” drive, Commission President Ursula von der Leyen’s bid to strengthen European businesses. It’s interesting in principle, with the aim to strengthen local supply chains via tools like public procurement schemes. But it already has divided European leaders, some of whom are concerned with its protectionist flavour.
Either way, 2026 is shaping up to be a decisive one for the future of our food systems, and eyes should be firmly on Brussels for all the twists and turns that will inevitably come.
More
Mercosur will make European farmers more vulnerable to international capital & commodities flows
EU Budget: How Brussels’ New Plans Put Regions Out to Pasture
The Future of Seeds: The Power Play Between Patents and New GMOs
The EU’s New Big Budget Bombshell – Here’s What We Know So Far
Visit from India: Natural Farming, A Women’s Agricultural Revolution of Diversity
What hope on the horizon? From Farm to Fork to a grand bargain in 2026
